Nonetheless, many lawmakers and outside experts see little chance for a deal to eliminate the deficit.

``Silly season is already upon us,'' complained Martha Phillips, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a group that tries to build public support for a balanced budget.

With the election six months away, restraints on popular programs like Medicare may be out of reach. Some limited spending cuts could still be possible, as well as an agreement on welfare reform. But chances of a budget stalemate are also running high.

``It would be a mistake if that happens,'' said Sen. Hank Brown, R-Colo., a Budget Committee member. ``Most voters see this as something that should get done, and they care a lot less about the political angles. If [Clinton and Dole] can reach an agreement, they would both gain.''

Yet there's the rub.

If both Clinton and Dole gain equally from a budget deal, that wouldn't help the Kansas senator close the gap in the polls between him and the president.

Indeed, the GOP seems to want to use the budget to make Clinton politically uncomfortable. In an unusual strategy, Republicans will break their budget-balancing legislation into three parts this year.

The first installment would give states control over welfare and reduce the growth of Medicaid, the health-care program for the poor. It would also provide a $500-per-child tax credit that helps many middle-class families. Republicans want to give Clinton the bill to sign or veto right after Independence Day. They may hit a nerve.

``I think the American people want us to do welfare reform, and the side that's perceived as blocking meaningful welfare reform is going to end up getting some negative spin on that,'' said Rep. Gary Condit, D-Calif., who supports a balanced budget. He predicted conservative Democrats would feel pressure to vote for the GOP bill.

On Clinton's side of the political divide, there's also risk in bargaining with the Republicans. Any deal is going to involve substantial reductions in Medicare, Medicaid and other social programs that are important to Democratic constituencies.

Politically, both sides may be better off using the budget as material for campaign commercials. The deficit could increase.

``There's a very real danger we're going to backslide a bit because of election-year pressure,'' said economist Robert Reischauer, former head of the Congressional Budget Office.

That would leave the job to the next president and Congress. But there's a price for delay. Average Americans, many of them elderly, could well end up paying it. Here's why:

Medicare is getting financially weaker every year. The program's hospital trust fund is now projected to go bankrupt in 2001, instead of 2002.

Last year, the government would have had seven years to phase in changes.

Next year, the need to act on Medicare will be more urgent. But benefit cuts may have to be deeper, since the program will be only four years away from bankruptcy.

NATIONAL NEWS

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